Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners – News from the Associate Director, Security Studies Program
Recall that the most basic description of collapse of the Kim Family Regime is the loss of the Regime/Party’s central governing effectiveness and the loss of coherency (and support) of the military and security services. These kinds of reports indicate low level breakdown of the security services and over time can have debilitating effects on the regime if not checked. These are indicators that bear watching by the intelligence community (and of course Bob Collins’ Patterns of Collapse also known as the Seven Phases of Collapse provide detailed indicators that provide a road map to regime collapse and everyone on the ROK/US Combined Forces Command Staff should be well versed in Bob Collins’ work). Robert Kaplan provided a brief description of Bob’s work in 2006 at this link: http://www.theatlantic.com/ magazine/archive/2006/10/when- north-korea-falls/305228/
N. Korea Perestroika watch: crackdown forces border guards to become robbers
JANUARY 14, 2015 NK MILITARY NO COMMENTS
HTTP://FREEKOREA.US/2015/01/ 14/N-KOREA-PERESTROIKA-WATCH- CRACKDOWN-FORCES-BORDER- GUARDS-TO-BECOME-ROBBERS/
Last week, China filed an official protest with North Korea over the December killing of four Chinese civilians by a rogue North Korean border guard who had turned to robbery. A Bloomberg reporter researches this further, in search of a pattern, and finds one:
A spate of murders by North Koreans inside China’s border is prompting some residents to abandon their homes, testing China’s ability to manage both the 1400-kilometre shared frontier and its relationship with the reclusive nation.
The violence reflects a growing desperation among soldiers, including border guards, since Kim Jong-un took over as supreme leader in Pyongyang three years ago. As well as seeking food, they are entering China to steal money.
“Bribes were one of the key sources of income for these guards to survive, but after Kim Jong-un came to power and tightened controls, it became difficult for them to take bribes, thus the criminal deviations,” said Kang Dong Wan, a professor of international relations at Busan’s Dong-a University in South Korea. [Bloomberg]
The reporter interviews “a senior local official,” who asked not to be identified, and who says that “[a]round 20 villagers have been murdered in Nanping by North Koreans in recent years.” Before the December incident, in September, another North Korean soldier murdered three members of another family over 500 yuan, just under $100. The soldier was later caught.
The crime wave has caused some residents to leave the village. The official says that in the winter, when the Tumen River freezes over, “it is common for soldiers to enter the village to demand food.”
“Barbed wires separating China and North Korea are as good as non-existent, with some parts of the border river being so shallow that you only risk getting yourself wet from the knee down when you wade across it,” Dr Kang said. “The geographic extensiveness of the border also makes it very difficult to maintain a complete watch.” [….]
“Military units in fringe areas or with less influence also get less food,” Mr Kwon said. “This will get worse. It is estimated about 2 million North Koreans are still unable to feed themselves properly even though the days of them starving to death are over.”
Reaching back into the vast OFK archives, there is a long history of known incidents of North Korean border guards and soldiers either getting involved in smuggling, defecting, or even fragging their officers. For example, in 2010, I wrote this:
Border guards were no exception. As cross-border trade became more lucrative, so did the acceptance of bribes to overlook it. The corruption of the border guards became so brazen that they have been photographed while smuggling in broad daylight. Even field-grade officers, and most strikingly, members of North Korea’s intelligence services, went into the smuggling business. [….]
In October 2012, a soldier fragged two officers and fled across the DMZ, to South Korea.
May of 2012, the Daily NK reported that two North Korean border guards shot roughly half a dozen of their colleagues, crossed the border, and went up to the hills to hide. The Chinese caught them and repatriated them back to North Korea.
In February 2007, a group of twenty North Korean border guards defected. Asahi TV later interviewed two of them.
Historically, when disciplinary infractions have embarrassed the regime, it has carried out mass transfers of the force, sometimes swapping border guard for regular army units, or flooding the zone with officers of the Ministry of Public Security or State Security Department.
The regime knows too well that banditry can beget mutiny.
– See more at: http://freekorea.us/2015/01/ 14/n-korea-perestroika-watch- crackdown-forces-border- guards-to-become-robbers/# sthash.fKsn5fe5.dpuf